Uber shares can double from here on ride-share bookings growth, Morgan Stanley says

Uber ‘s stock can double as the company heads down a path toward multiyear earnings growth, according to Morgan Stanley. Analyst Brian Nowak maintained an overweight rating on Uber, saying the rideshare company’s cost structure could drive growth from here. “We analyze user/frequency/pricing growth of UBER’s top 10% of users (using UBER 25 times/month) and bottom 90% (using UBER 3 times/month) and show how monitoring price, convenience and new product innovation will be key to driving 20%+ CAGR rideshare growth,” Nowak wrote in a Sunday note. The analyst slashed his price target to $54 per share from $70. Still, the new objective implies 103.8% upside from Friday’s closing price of $26.50. Nowak said investors should monitor two separate frameworks to monitor Uber’s rideshare bookings growth in 2023 and 2024. Traders should keep an eye on growth in UberX, new products and new geographies, which Uber noted would drive 50%, 35% and 15%, respectively, of forward rideshare bookings growth, he noted. They should also monitor user growth as only a small number of people, or the top 10% of users on the platform, drive nearly half of total global bookings, according to the note. The analyst expects that Uber’s ability to beat expectations will depend on whether it can grow the “other 90%” of its user base, according to the note. “We remain OW Uber given its continued multi-year runway for ~20%+ topline growth as well as inflecting EBITDA/FCF, which we expect to scale to $5.7bn//$4.9bn by 2024,” read the note. –CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.

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